Abhishek Dwivedi
This year from start has been a year of revolution. Tunisia, Sudan, and Egypt all opted for a Revolution. A revolution for better life, for a better democracy shook the whole Middle East. Now Libiya has started its movement for democracy. The struggle between rebels and Gaddafi has taken the center stage in world politics. NATO and its European friends are trying all their methods to make Gadaffi leave the troubled country. The world is hailing all these revolutions, calling them historical and a new beginning for democracy. The predictions of an Arab revolution are getting louder. But I have remained unsure of these revolutions from beginning. Let’s look into some related terms of these so call historical revolutions. Indian civil society is also predicting and vouching for such a revolution in India. I am trying to review the feasibility on any such revolution in India.
My assessment is a big NO. Egyptian like revolution is not possible neither good for India. Reasons?
First,
India is a multi-layered structural democratic system. It has a decentralized power system. Powers are divided, so is accountability. Yes, the corruption is also at all levels. The recent example is the NREGA scam which involves a minister to a gram Pradhan. The urbanization drive is pushing more citizens below poverty line. But the glitter of cities is hiding the pain of villages. The big buildings are making the trouble of slums look to small. Somehow, miss-governance has been over-shadowed by the over-publicized concept of development. The stories of “Bharat Nirman” and “India shining” are more than enough to give fairly good pictures to Indian people. The Self-assertion of being a super power is thrilling the nation.15 August and 26 January are enough to keep people in illusions under the hood of nationalism. The day a scam breaks out, next day we see India achieving a milestone or at least proclaiming that it will achieve and we forget everything. Also, we have RTI’s in place which have increased the accountability of the government. The concept of dictatorship is frightening if we see the condition of our neighbor Pakistan. It’s a dying economy surviving only on the aid of USA. Egypt has been living under this terror for so long that they ultimately give up. They want to be like us, cherish the democracy we celebrate.
Secondly, India is a highly diversified country. Here each region has its own language and culture. The lack of a national language is also a negative for uprising. The divide and rule policy can be/is employed here conveniently. The linguistic and communal gap has become so divisive due to politics of last 50 years, that it’s impossible to unite all sects of people. You will find no unity in the diversity here. The mixture of religion is politics have always harmed the nation but it has also silently destroyed all prospects of a pan-India revolution. This is the same phenomena we saw in the Anna movement. The controversy related to RSS and Vandematram did the trick for government. It was able to decrease the magnitude of the movement.
Another important point is the emergence of the important middle class.India has a far big middle class which believes that it has nothing to do with the rampant corruption. They think that good governance is related with only inflation and terrorism. Assumption of corruption as necessity is the problem. They have developed a habit of tolerance. Its view that corruption is only limited to top, is lethal. But certainly it makes the way difficult for a revolution. It’s simple; nobody cares till the problem is not personal. Huge uproar was made about the Anna revolution that it has raised the middle class from its never ending sleep. The mighty middle class is on streets. But not even half million of 150 million people belonging to middle class responded to the movement on the ground. We cannot term a fraction of middle class, in fact a very small fraction as the representative of the might middle class.
We enjoy our right to freedom of speech in India. It’s only in India that we call our leaders a thief on national television and escape the punishment. We have our democratic rights. We have all human rights with us. Egypt is fighting for all these. They want the basic rights to be given back to them. They are bleeding for the right to life. We are blessed that our democracy is so strong that it has kept all these values embodied in the pillars on which our nation stands today.
Also, the revolution in Egypt was driven by faith. The sudden rise of Muslim Brotherhood after a long pause was hailed by most of the Arab world. They were called as catalyst of change. But most of the people ignored the fact that, faith can drive masses but cannot govern a nation. Nobody sensed that situation like Iran can arise. No country has been successfully ruled by the Religion. Faith and governance are two different things. Last week’s brutal killing of 13 Christians was a starling incident and proved my fears. The revolution which was hailed as historical has started to show the other side. This is what happens when a revolution takes place without an after plan and a leader. The emergency of situation is alarming in Egypt. It can take the path of civil war there. Rebels have started fighting among themselves. Not surprisingly what Mubarak had said, is coming true. It will be interesting to see what CIA does here. But let’s not shift the topic. Coming back to India, we must agree that we do not need religion as a catalyst for a political change in India. India has had very bitter experience from the fusion.
India has a very troubled neighborhood. Pakistan in west and north, China in east and north, Bangladesh in east, Srilanka in south, it’s not a good picture. Our relationship with China and Pakistan has not been on a good note. LTTE in south is searching for a base to revamp its organization. A revolution will give chances to anti-India forces to silently harm India. Separatists in Kashmir may use the situation to push the valley into chaos again. A state of anarchy may develop. It will be a perfect opportunity for the Maoists to move towards the cities which they have been eying for years. Predictions of civil war cannot be ruled out. Violence may take the center stage. Also our economy is going through a troubled phrase. Rupee is falling day by day while inflation is rising. Our airlines are one by one moving towards bankruptcy. Just imagine what a state of chaos will do to the situation. The burden will fall on the poor along with the lower middle class. Do we really want this?
India has been a sufferer of silence. Here nobody is concerned until it’s personal. But the sudden flood of scams and inflation has changed the circumstances a bit. The urban mass somehow has started rising. But will it take the form of Egyptian revolution? I am still unsure.
